We are coming up on the halfway point of the 2021 baseball season for most teams, and one of the things that has become abundantly clear is that some starting pitchers have had dramatically different results when pitching at home as compared to pitching on the road.
It is to the point that they should practically be backed automatically at one and faded consistently on the other, regardless of the opponent. These types of trends tend to build upon themselves throughout the season, as it almost becomes a mind game for pitchers.
Here are my top pitchers who perform much better at home:
Blake Snell (Padres)
Home: 7 G, 37.2 IP, 1.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 13.14 K/9, team record: 6-1, +4.9 units. Road: 8 G, 28.2 IP, 10.36 ERA, 2.23 WHIP, 10.99 K/9, team record: 0-8, -11.35 units.
The left-hander was acquired in the offseason after pitching for the Rays in the World Series last fall. His home numbers are sparkling, and his road numbers are brutal. There is a difference of nearly nine on his ERA, and his WHIP is more than double when pitching away from Petco. The Padres have not won a road game started by Snell this season. He went on the 10-day injured list on Wednesday.
Trevor Bauer (Dodgers)
Home: 6 G, 39.0 IP, 2.54 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 11.30 K/9, team record: 5-1, +2.4 units. Road: 11 G, 68.2 IP, 2.62 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 11.54 K/9, team record: 3-8, -9.8 units.
Bauer led the Dodgers to a key win at home Monday night against the Giants, getting aided by a generous strike zone. The result continued a pattern Bauer brought with him from Cincinnati — winning at home, while being a major disappointment for backers on the road. The Dodgers have lost nearly 10 units (3-8) in Bauer’s road starts, although to be fair, his numbers are relatively equal at both locales. This seems more like an overall function of the Dodgers’ struggles to hit for him when away from home, as he has garnered just 22 total runs of support in his last 10 road starts. Bettors need to avoid paying the shorter prices to back Bauer in road parks. His next start figures to be Sunday at Washington.
Kyle Gibson (Rangers)
Home: 8 G, 49.2 IP, 1.09 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 8.16 K/9, team record: 8-0, +9.1 units. Road: 7 G, 40.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.47 K/9, Team Record: 2-5, -2 units.
He has pitched like Bob Gibson in leading his team to wins in each of his eight starts in Arlington while compiling impressive ERA, WHIP and strikeout numbers. On the road, he hasn’t been bad, but bettors have lost with him. In his last six home starts, Rangers bats have produced 6.0 runs per game, compared to just 2.6 RPG in his last five road starts. With a 10-27 mark, there isn’t much reason to back Texas any time away from home, so don’t make matters worse by putting your money on their best pitcher. It isn’t working. The Rangers’ ace should pitch at Seattle on Friday and then Wednesday at home versus Detroit. You know what the bets should be.
German Marquez (Rockies)
Home: 11 G, 64.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, team record: 9-2, +7.6 units. Road: 6 G, 34.2 IP, 4.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9.35 K/9, team record: 1-5, -4 units.
Much like the Rockies, German Marquez has been a reliable betting option at home, a near-automatic fade on the road. Marquez’s road WHIP isn’t all that much higher, and his strikeouts are actually up, but as most bettors know, posting respectable pitching stats at Coors Field will lead to consistent victories. Marquez figures to get another home opportunity on Sunday against St. Louis.