An impressive run in Apple’s stock over the last four weeks has left it vulnerable to a short-term pullback, warns one veteran chart watcher.
“Apple is just as overbought as it was in early September of last year just before it rolled over in a significant way,” said Matt Maley, Miller Tabak chief markets strategist. “So it looks like it will need to pullback and digest its gains before it takes a run at breaking above its January all-time highs.”
Apple’s relative strength index (RSI) —a key technical measurement of stock price momentum that traders use to determine if a stock is overbought — is at its highest level since Sept. 1, 2020, when the tech giant’s stock hit a then record level. (See purple circles at bottom in below chart)
Once that record was hit, Apple’s stock (AAPL) quickly fell about 20% by mid-September, according to Yahoo Finance analysis. Apple’s stock didn’t climb beyond its Sept. 1 high until Dec. 28, 2020.
So in other words, based on historical RSI analysis for Apple it suggests the stock is again experiencing overbought conditions and could be at risk for a sharp pullback.
Shares of the iPhone maker are up 6% so far in July, outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s modest 0.6% gain. The stock is the best-performing member of the FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) cohort in the past month, up 15% compared to runner-up Amazon with an 11.6% gain.
Although Apple’s stock chart is flashing warning signs, the Street remains bullish on the company’s fundamentals and what that may mean to the stock price into year end.
“The upside pressure on volumes for the iPhone 12 series, historical outperformance in the July-September time period heading into launch event, and further catalysts in relation to outperformance for iPhone 13 volumes relative to lowered investor expectations implies a very attractive set up for the shares in the second half of the year and thus expect Apple shares to outperform the broader market materially in 2H21,” said J.P. Morgan telecom and networking analyst Samik Chatterjee in a recent note.
Chatterjee reiterated his Outperform rating and raised his price target to $170 from $165. He also lifted his estimates modestly higher on iPhone and iPad volumes.
Out of the 45 analysts on Wall Street who cover Apple, 76% rate the stock a Buy.
Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.
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