England will be bidding to end 55 years of hurt on Sunday when it takes on Italy in the Euro 2020 final at Wembley Stadium. The Three Lions, who haven’t won a major football tournament since 1966, are +165 to end that drought with a win on Sunday in 90 minutes. And they are -120 to lift the trophy by any method (90 minutes, extra time, penalties).
This looks to be a genuine 50/50 matchup in my opinion. We know the English have the home advantage, but on the evidence from what we have seen in this tournament, it’s the Italians who arguably have been more impressive.
Gareth Southgate’s men looked nervous in their semifinal win over Denmark, and they will have to raise their game — something they are more capable of doing — if they are to win this match on Sunday.
England played well on Wednesday only after it took the shackles off when it had to chase an equalizer, and it canceled out Mikkel Damsgaard’s goal within 10 minutes of the Danes taking the lead.
In this match, Southgate will not ditch his tactics, which have been successful rather than entertaining at Euro 2020, and I just can’t see how the English can win by trying to do a typical Italian job on the Italians.
England will not risk anything in this match until it has to, as the fear of losing rather than the desire to win is the main priority for Southgate.
The Italians will also be very nervous after the disappointment of failing to make the World Cup three years ago in Russia. I believe they will pay the English the utmost respect, and after a 33-match unbeaten run, they certainly will have their supporters at 2/1 to win in 90 minutes and at even money to lift the trophy.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this match go the distance, and I will not be having a bet on any of the 90-minute or tournament winner markets. But one of the bets that interests me is the -110 on the final to be a draw at halftime, because four of the past six European Championship finals have ended in draws at halftime, and this is the closest final in the betting markets.
I also like under two goals in the match on the Asian line at -110, with the wager a push if there are only two goals scored in what I am expecting to be a low-scoring final.