From the borough whose lovable baseball losers brought us “wait till next year” comes the Liberty’s summer version of that autumnal rallying cry in their inaugural season at Barclays Center: “Why wait till next year?”
The revamped Liberty have quickly leaped from last season’s inept 2-20 bubble finish — at 8-9, they have quadrupled their win total in five fewer games — to emerge as viable playoff contenders at the approximate midpoint of the WNBA schedule.
Eight of 12 teams qualify for the postseason. The Las Vegas Aces, Seattle Storm and Connecticut Sun have separated from the field and are set to secure three of those spots. The last-place Indiana Fever are a pitiful 1-15.
That means there are eight teams in the tightly bunched middle of the standings vying for five spots — or seven teams for four spots, depending on how you measure the fourth-place Chicago Sky, who were 8-1 when Candace Parker plays and 1-7 when she does not.
Advanced metrics do not augur well for the Liberty, who rank 11th in the league in net rating (minus-6.8 points per 100 possessions, predictive of a 6-11 record, per Basketball Reference), but they might find relief in the schedule — nine of their remaining 15 games are at home, 10 of 15 are against teams who started Wednesday at .500 or worse.
Here’s what to watch down the stretch and what will determine whether Walt Hopkins’ squad breaks through with a postseason berth or is left to mutter “wait till next year”:
Which Sabrina Ionescu will they get?
The world-beating college phenom-turned-No. 1 pick who averaged 17.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 7.8 assists through her first six games, including a historic triple-double?
Or the 23-year-old point guard in her de facto rookie season who has been slowed in recent weeks, both by opposing defenses. — “I have seen them all in college,” Ionescu said recently, “but of course at this level, the IQ, the athleticism, the passing windows, all of those things shrink, and you have to be able to make those reads and those decisions in a split of a second” — and by a halting recovery from tearing ligaments in her left ankle last summer.
Ionescu is averaging 5.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists in her past nine games. She’s shooting 33.1 percent overall. She sat out two games in mid-June to rest the ankle and has been on a minutes restriction since.
”It’s one of those things that’s kind of unavoidable,” Hopkins said. “We could’ve done more of a minutes restriction, but really she needs to practice, she needs to get reps, so it’s this mixed bag. … I think it’s just going to be a back and forth for parts of this season. The Olympic break is obviously going to be a huge thing for her to get that rest and continue to play but to take some of the load off of that leg.”
Can Betnijah Laney maintain her All-Star level?
The Liberty’s offseason signing of Laney, a 27-year-old journeywoman wing who won Most Improved Player honors in 2020, has looked brilliant. Laney was named an All-Star on Wednesday for the first time, averaging 19.7 points (sixth in the league) and 5.3 assists (seventh) while often guarding the other team’s best perimeter player. She’s been pressed into more play-making duties due to Ionescu’s slowdown.
“The amount we rely on her — offense, defense, leadership, scoring, passing, rebounding. I mean, she’s required to do so much for our team, particularly with injuries,” Hopkins said last week. “To go from a player who was essentially a defensive stopper, role player, energy person, to being … one of the best two-way players in the league, and a phenomenal leader and teammate, I cannot say enough about B.”
Is Natasha Howard the missing piece?
Howard, acquired via blockbuster trade this winter, was supposed to round out the Liberty’s Big 3. But, echoing the other Big 3 in the building, they’ve rarely shared the court. Howard arrived late, quarantined, then suffered an MCL sprain in her second game in seafoam. But even in a small sample, she proved a much-needed defensive anchor and explosive pick-and-roll player: In her 44 minutes, the Liberty were plus-12.3 points per 100 possessions. Howard’s return is now in sight — the Liberty waived backup center Kiah Stokes on Wednesday.
Will it come down to tiebreakers?
The Liberty currently own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dallas Wings (8-8 entering Wednesday), Phoenix Mercury (7-7), Minnesota Lynx (7-7) and Los Angeles Sparks (6-8). They have one home and one road game left with the Wings, back-to-back home games with the Mercury (whose point guard Skylar Diggins-Smith told Liberty reserve Jazmine Jones on Twitter to “shut tf up”), two road dates with the Lynx and one home game versus the Sparks.
Or how about this subplot? The final game is against Tina Charles, the scorned former Liberty franchise player turning in an MVP-caliber season for the Washington Mystics (7-9), in Brooklyn, with a possible playoff spot on the line.