Kyle Schwarber’s power will fade — even when he’s healthy again

If you’re a child of the 1980s, chances are you’ve played “Super Mario Bros.” once or twice.

The objective of the game is to save Princess Peach Toadstool by defeating Bowser and his minions while progressing through levels, collecting items and solving puzzles without dying.

Along your journey, you can grab stars that will make Mario invincible for a short period of time and destroy everything in sight (it’s akin to Pac-Man eating his power pellets and having the ability to kill Blinky, Pinky, Inky and Clyde).

The Nationals’ Kyle Schwarber must have loaded up on stars in mid-June, because he has been invincible ever since. At least before suffering a “significant” hamstring injury Friday.

Schwarber, now known to Roto Rage as Super Schwario, belted 16 home runs in 18 games from June 12-29, joining Sammy Sosa (1998) and Barry Bonds (2001) as the only players in MLB history to hit that many big flies in an 18-game stretch. He went 24-for-69 (.348) with 27 RBIs, seven walks, 20 strikeouts and a 1.446 OPS in those games. He also hit 12 homers in a 10-game stretch, tying a record set by Albert Belle in 1995.

Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
Getty Images

That stretch also kicked off Schwarber’s time as the Nats’ leadoff hitter. It isn’t the first time he has been a leadoff hitter, it is just the first time he has had prolonged success. In 2017, he was the Cubs’ leadoff hitter for 37 games and hit .190 with 48 strikeouts, a .312 on-base percentage and .693 OPS. In 2019, he batted first in 59 games and hit .229 with 17 homers, 36 RBIs, 70 strikeouts and a .304 OBP.

In his first 20 games as Washington’s leadoff hitter, he was 25-for-75 (.333) with 16 homers, 27 RBIs, 22 runs, 24 strikeouts, .414 OBP and a 1.400 OPS. Does this suddenly make Super Schwario an elite leadoff hitter? Not at all.

Part of this sudden success can be attributed to hitting coach Kevin Long working with Schwarber on his stance at the plate (Long also helped Daniel Murphy find his power stroke with the Mets in 2015). Another reason could be attributed to the contact hitters behind him in the lineup — Trea Turner and Juan Soto. Pitchers can’t pitch around Schwarber expecting Turner or Soto to be easy outs, so Schwarber is seeing better pitches.

Let’s also give Schwarber his props, as his chase rate is way down and his contact rate is above his career average. By laying off pitches outside the strike zone, he is getting better pitches to swing at.

“I think the biggest thing is just not missing the pitch. Not fouling it off or taking it,” Schwarber told the Associated Press. “That’s kind of the biggest thing, is that whenever I am swinging at the pitch I want to swing at, that it’s catching some barrel.”

It is unclear how much time he will miss with the new injury, but some analytic trends already should have raised red flags. Schwarber’s 18.6 barrel rate (aided by an unsustainable 36 percent barrel rate during his hot streak) ranks in the top 3 percent of the league, according to Statcast. His maximum exit velocity (116.6 mph) ranks seventh in the majors, while his average exit velocity (92.1) ranks 21st.

Schwarber’s power is for real, as it always has been, but is anything else? He is a career .233 hitter, and his .251 average entering Friday was a career-best mark. Before this historic stretch, he was hitting .216 with 65 strikeouts in his first 53 games — numbers more in line with the player who was non-tendered by the Cubs after hitting .188 in 2020.

Schwarber has always been a streaky hitter who strikes out a ton, and he still is striking out a ton (28.9 percent of his at-bats). He also is walking in a career-low 10.3 percent of his at-bats.

Unfortunately, Roto Rage believes Super Schwario’s invincibility powers are going to wear off, even when he returns from his injury. He will still hit his fair share of homers, maybe even reach that current 40-42 projection, but don’t be surprised if you’re trying to beat the game with the small Schwario you started the season with.

Big hits

Ozzie Albies 2B, Braves

Was 19-for-58 (.328) with six homers, 18 RBIs, 14 runs, six stolen bases and a 1.085 OPS in his past 15 games. Had stolen nine bases since June 1.

Chris Bassitt SP, Athletics

Has not lost since April 6, going 9-0 with a 2.74 ERA, 102-24 strikeout-walk rate and a .202 opponent average in 15 starts since. He has allowed more than two earned runs in just two of those outings.

Joey Gallo OF, Rangers

In his previous 19 games before Friday, he was 21-for-62 (.339) with 10 homers, 20 RBIs, 16 runs, 18 walks, two stolen bases and a 1.326 OPS.

Joe Ross SP, Nationals

Over his past two starts, he is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA, 15 strikeouts and a .208 opponent average. He is 3-1 with a 2.39 ERA in his past four starts.

Big Whiffs

Kris Bryant 1B/3B/OF, Cubs

After hitting .324 with 12 homers, 36 RBIs, 36 runs and a 1.016 OPS in the first two months, he was 9-for-79 (.114) with three homers, five RBIs, nine runs and a .445 OPS in 23 games in June.

Aroldis Chapman RP, Yankees

Allowed six earned runs over his past 1 ¹/₃ innings (40.50 ERA), and was 1-2 with two blown saves, a 17.47 ERA and .464 opponent average over his past eight appearances.

Javier Baez SS, Cubs

Though he hit five homers and drove in 13 runs in June, he went 13-for-83 (.157) with 37 strikeouts and .604 OPS for the month.

Aaron Nola SP, Phillies

Despite tossing 5 ¹/₃ scoreless innings against the Mets on June 25, he is 0-1 with a 9.49 ERA and .315 opponent average over his past three starts.

Check Swings

  • Since blowing a save on May 12, Nationals closer Brad Hand is 15-for-15 is save opportunities while going 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA, .188 opponent average and 21-3 strikeout-walk rate. Ten of those saves came in June, when he went 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA and .158 opponent average.
  • Ryan McMahon of the Rockies entered Friday having not homered since June 15, and was 5-for-35 (.143) with 19 strikeouts and a .429 OPS in his past 12 games. He hit .211 with 36 strikeouts in June.
  • After hitting .226 with 61 strikeouts and a .628 OPS over his first 49 games, the Orioles’ Ryan Mountcastle went 33-for-101 (.327) with nine homers, 26 RBIs, 17 runs and a 1.015 OPS over 26 games in June. His strikeout rate went from 34.4 percent over the first two months to 25.7 percent in June.
  • Over his past five starts, Gerrit Cole allowed nine homers, after allowing four over his first 11 starts. He was 2-2 with a 4.65 ERA and .214 opponent average in June.

Team Name of the Week

Air Yordan

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